B.J. Upton’s big contract means big expectations
There is no question that the addition of the Upton brothers, to the Braves, was done to increase power in the lineup from the right side of the plate. At first glance, it looks like this deal is going to do just that, but after looking at the numbers, maybe not.
Let’s first talk about B.J. Upton. Last year he hit .246, with 28 HR, 78 RBI, and a slugging percentage of .454. What’s interesting about that, is B.J. came from the AL East, which according to ballpark numbers, is the best power division in baseball. The AL East averaged a rank of 12.4 in home runs per ballpark, which ranks at the top of baseball. The AL East also ranked high in runs per division, with an average ballpark rank of 12.6, which ranks 2nd compared to other divisions.
So does changing divisions drop B.J.’s numbers? I will answer that in just a minute. Let’s first look at the other Upton.
B.J.’s brother, Justin, hit .280, with 17 HR, 67 RBI, and a .430 slugging percentage. Justin did that with Arizona in the NL West, which is ranked 4th in home runs per division in baseball, with an average ballpark rank of 15.2.
The NL West falls to 5th though, in terms of runs per division, with an average ball park rank of 17.4. How do all those numbers compare to the NL East, for the Upton brothers? Okay for Justin, but not so much for B.J.
The NL East has a ballpark rank of 16.8 home runs per division, which ranks 5th. The NL East is one spot better, in runs per division, with a ballpark rank of 17.4.
In conclusion, by the numbers it would be reasonable to believe that B.J. Upton’s numbers would decrease, while Justin Upton’s numbers would stay about the same. Is this the way it will pan out? I can’t answer that until the season is over, but I promise you this, it is something I will be paying very close attention to. The Upton’s have to be successful in order for the Braves to make a substantial playoff run, and win a World Series.
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