The Braves need production against left-handed pitching from the third base position
Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson are the two top candidates to man the Braves third base position this season. Most likely in some sort of platoon situation, although the Braves have hopes that one or the other can step up and play well enough to win the full-time job.
But could there be a dark horse candidate that will play a fair amount at third base, and perhaps even win the position?
In looking at the Francisco/Johnson platoon at third, there is one problem. Neither one hits left-handed pitching very well.
In his career, Johnson has hit .255 against left-handed pitching, with a .294 on-base-percentage, and .372 slugging percentage. Against right-handed pitching, Johnson has hit.283, with a .323 on-base-percentage, and .452 slugging percentage.
Francisco has also hit well against right-handed pitching, sporting a career .272 average, with a .320 on-base-percentage, and .487 slugging percentage. Against left-handed pitching, Francisco has been startlingly inept, hitting only .190, with a .224 on-base-percentage, and .222 slugging percentage.
In other words, both third base options are a long ways away from being plus players against left-handed pitching. So could there be another option at third? Is there another player on the Braves roster who has hit well against left-handed pitching in his career, and can do a credible job playing third base?
My first thought was that perhaps Tyler Pastornicky could be an option. He has good speed, so a line-up that could potentially use a speed guy at the top, would welcome a guy like Pastornicky. But checking Pastornicky’s splits last season against lefties, the right-handed Pastornicky hit much better against right-handed pitching, than lefties. He hit only .196, with a .250 on-base-percentage, and .286 slugging percentage, last season against lefties. He also has never played third in the minors or majors. So scratch Pastornicky.
Another potential candidate is Ramiro Pena, who the Braves signed in the off-season as a free agent. Pena is a switch-hitter, but when you look at his splits, switch-hitter is a term used loosely. Yes, Pena bats both right-handed and left-handed. But he barely hits left-handed pitching, hitting only .127 against lefties, with a .160 on-base-percentage, and .127 slugging percentage. No doubles, no triples, and no homers against left-handed pitching in 71 at bats. Scratch Ramiro Pena.
Paul Janish, who will probably be out until May while he rehabs a shoulder injury, is the other infielder on the roster who could play third. Without detailing the numbers, let me just say that Janish doesn’t have what it takes to platoon at third against left-handed pitching, either. Scratch Janish.
So it looks like Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco will get plenty of opportunities this season to improve on their career numbers against left-handed pitching. There is no other potential option on the current roster. Although, I still have a hunch that GM Frank Wren has one more move left up his sleeve, and will bring in a speed guy at third that can hit at the top of the order, and he’ll do it at some point during the season.
About Jim Hart
Who, pray tell, is a “speed guy at third that can hit at the top of the order”? The corner infield and outfield positions are “reserved” for power guys whose defense doesn’t fit anywhere else on the field due to limited range, speed, etc.
Bob, good point about there not being many speed guys that play third. Martin Prado is a third baseman who has good speed (stole 17 bases last season) and has below average power (10 homers last year). Unfortunately we can probably write in stone that he won’t be coming back to Atlanta this season, if ever. There’s guys in the league that either are true third basemen that have below average power with good speed or are not true third basemen but are utility infielder types who could fit the bill. A “speed guy” is not necessarily a big base stealer but can get on base and score on gap hits.
Third basemen are premium position players, i.e., it would take a boatload of money and/or prospects to pry one loose if he is good. The utility infielders are usually, but not always, not good enough to warrant a full-time gig. Besides, utility infielders have value, too. I sincerely doubt that we have prospects that Wren would trade for a regular third baseman, if he were to become available (such as Jed Lowrie, or his ilk). I, also, doubt that Wren would trade for a utility guy since we have Pastornicky who could be servicable at 3rd, is a speed guy and has a decent bat. I really believe that we will use what we have until the trade deadline and then, if we still have the need, Maholm, either Fransico or Johnson and a AA player could possibly be used to acquire a third sacker. On the other hand, I’m a huge Fransico fan, so I hope he steps up and runs away with the job.
Hopefully Francisco, Johnson or both step up and hit this season. Both have looked good in the spring, they appear to be rising to the competitive challenge. Looking at their career splits, they don’t look like every day players. Perhaps that will change this season.
We can’t really say that Francisco isn’t an everyday player, yet. He has had very few at bats in the majors. Beside, the minor league numbers don’t have the huge splits that are evident in the major league numbers. His major league career has been primarily playing against right handers, even though he hit lefties well in the minors. I think that given the chance, Francisco will surprise a lot of folks.
Also, his defensive metrics suggest that he is as good as Chipper has been the past five years or so and I don’t remember many people complaining about Chipper’s defense.
Francisco looks good so far in the spring. If he assumes the full-time job and could hit .260 with 20 HRs and 75 RBIs that would be very nice production. On a cautionary note, I don’t think the Braves would have insisted on Chris Johnson in the Upton deal if they thought Francisco was a slam dunk. Obviously they have concerns and wanted some insurance. Hopefully he produces this season and next year at this time we can discuss whether or not they need to sign him to a long term deal.
Btw, I see where Pastornicky hit his second homer of the spring today and Uggla homered as well.
I watched the game today, as well, and was pleasantly surprised by Uggla, Pastornicky and Francisco. Juan has been playing very well and seems to have taken Walker’s hitting suggestions to heart. Rev could always hit, but the surprise is the power that he has displayed this spring. Perhaps he’s maturing early, or, more likely, is feasting off the poor pitching that they have faced thus far. Uggla has been tracking pitches, or so he said, and homered off a curve ball. That’s good to see since he was fed a steady diet of off speed stuff most of last year.
Could Pastornicky at some point end up leading off and playing third base? The shortstop position appeared to move a little quick for him last season. He was almost wild-eyed. I think as he continues to get experience he will calm down and be an average or better fielder. Or will Pastornicky take over for Uggla at some point this season? I think Pastornicky has a nice package of speed/hitting/power for a middle infielder. Hopefully Uggla resumes his power hitting ways from earlier in his career, but I don’t think Fredi’s patience is going to be unlimited this season.
I believe that Pastornicky could lead off and do it quite well. He admitted today that he was a bit overwhelmed last season, being new to the majors, nervous, and unsure of his defense and it sort of snowballed on him. He stated that he will do whatever is necessary to get back to the big club, but Fredi said that he and Elmer Reyes are going to be the shortstops until Simmons returns. So, I think that it’s doubtful that he will see much time at third. He has played second at AAA and in spring this year, as well as the outfield, so he could make a case for utility guy on the bench. To be truthful, if he had more than a handful of games at third, I think that he could replace Pena, Schafer and C Johnson as back-ups (I think Fredi has already decided to use Francisco as a full time 3rd baseman until he proves he can’t handle it.).
Dan’s job is as secure as they come, but last year should be a lesson to him. He absolutely must produce to stay in the line-up. Until Dan proves that he is no longer a MLB regular, Fredi will “keep running him out there.”
BTW, do you know if arm strength is the reason Pastornicky isn’t playing more at third?
Pastornicky is only 23 so I think he still has development and upside. It isn’t like he’s a grizzly veteran and has washed out. In some ways it feels like he has been written off a little bit. Haven’t heard if arm strength is an issue regarding playing third but when the team comes north I’ll ask around about that.